According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US economic surprise index fell to -23 points on Tuesday, marking the lowest level in 9 months and the largest decline outside of 2024 in three years (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, June 19, 2025). This index, which tracks economic data relative to analyst expectations, signals that recent US economic releases have consistently underperformed forecasts. Historically, such negative surprises have weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, as traders anticipate potential monetary policy adjustments or market volatility. Crypto traders should closely monitor macroeconomic data releases and the Federal Reserve’s response, as these could drive significant price action across digital assets.

According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), ADP private employment in May 2025 increased by only 37,000 jobs, significantly below the forecasted 115,000. This weaker-than-expected jobs data signals potential economic softness, which could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and increase market volatility. For crypto traders, the disappointing employment numbers may lead to heightened price swings for Bitcoin and Ethereum, as investors reassess risk assets in light of possible rate cut expectations (Source: Stock Talk).

According to André Dragosch, PhD (@Andre_Dragosch), Bitcoin’s recent short-term consolidation aligns with broader market trends, but current bearish economic data and an asymmetrical risk-reward profile suggest it is unlikely that BTC has reached its cycle top. Citing ongoing macroeconomic weakness, Dragosch emphasizes a favorable outlook for a new multiyear bull market rather than a reversal, urging traders not to be swayed by fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). This perspective highlights the importance of monitoring economic indicators and risk-reward ratios for those trading Bitcoin and related cryptocurrencies (Source: Twitter/@Andre_Dragosch, 2025-05-30).